Uma análise do comércio de minério de ferro entre a China e o Brasil : contexto, fatores de influência e perspectivas

Abstract

The iron ore trade is a very important part of trade relations between China and Brazil. This work will present this trade by characterizing its evolution, identifying the influencing factors, opportunities and perspectives in this area. First, in steel industry, China is a large country and has an enormous demand for iron ore due to its constant urbanization. Brazil is the second largest exporter of iron ore in the oligipolized market of this mineral. For iron ore of Brazil, China is the most important export market, and Brazil guarantees the supply security of iron ore to China. Therefore, the basis for cooperation between two countries in this area is very solid. However, although the amount of iron ore exported to China is still growing, today the price drop has caused a drop in the value of iron ore trade between China and Brazil. The iron ore trade between the two countries has gone through three phases: 1) slow growth (1973-2000), 2) rapid growth (2000-2011) and 3) gradual decline (2011 to now). Even facing the drop, trade in this product has a positive perspective between Brazil and China. Second, in the iron ore trade between China and Brazil, on the supply side, the quality and export quantity of the Brazilian iron ore, the preferential policies offered by the Brazilian government, the logistics conditions and the relative public opinion to the iron ore trade are the factors that influence Brazil's competitiveness in this trade. On the demand side, the urbanization and expansion of China's economic activity serve as the main driver of the increase in international iron ore trade. Looking ahead to the iron ore trade between China and Brazil, we believe that, in the short term, the value of trade may remain high; in the medium term, the development of the steel industry in China will slow down and its demand for iron ore will tend to remain stable; in the long run, China's steel industry has great potential and could maintain a high demand for iron ore imported from other markets. In the future, China and Brazil could improve the model of cooperation in areas related to iron ore in order to develop a new model based on both trade and investment. Chinese investment in Brazil in the areas related to iron ore is very significant for both countries, so at the end of this paper, I will analyze the feasibility of Chinese investment in Brazil in those related areas, including the forms of investment and the potential risks.

铁矿石贸易是中巴经贸合作中的重要部分。本文将介绍中巴铁矿石贸易的发展历程、影 响因素、机遇，以及两国在该领域合作的前景。中国是世界钢铁生产大国。由于长期的 城镇化建设，对铁矿石有长期的刚性需求。在当前的国际铁矿石寡头市场中，巴西是第 二大铁矿石出口国。中国是巴西铁矿石最重要的出口市场，而巴西保证了中国铁矿石的 供给安全，因此两国的合作基础非常坚实。如今，巴西运至中国的铁矿石不断增多，但 由于国际铁矿石价格的下降，贸易总价值时有下降。根据巴西出口中国铁矿石价值的变 化，中国和巴西铁矿石贸易经历了缓慢增长（1973-2000）、快速增长（2000-2011）和 逐渐下降（2011 至今）三个阶段，前景十分光明。在中巴铁矿石贸易中，作为供给方 的巴西十分有竞争力。巴西铁矿石自身的优势、政府的支持态度、巴西运输铁矿石的物 流条件以及社会舆论，都是影响巴西竞争力的重要因素。中国是铁矿石贸易的需求方， 其城市化和不断扩大的经济规模带来的需求是推动铁矿石贸易最重要的因素。通过分析 中国的宏观经济环境，我们大胆预测，短期内，中巴铁矿石贸易量将不断增长；中期内， 中国钢铁行业发展放缓，对铁矿石的需求将趋于稳定；长期看，中国钢铁行业潜能巨大， 将保持对进口铁矿石的大量需求。最后，中巴两国可以优化两国在铁矿石领域的合作， 将进出口贸易转换为投资贸易双驱动的合作。中国投资巴西铁矿石相关领域意义重大， 本文将详细分析其可行性，包括投资领域、投资方式、投资风险等。