Comparison of forecasts of mean monthly water level in the Paraguay River, Brazil, from two fractionally differenced models
dc.contributor.author | Prass, Taiane Schaedler | pt_BR |
dc.contributor.author | Bravo, Juan Martín | pt_BR |
dc.contributor.author | Clarke, Robin Thomas | pt_BR |
dc.contributor.author | Collischonn, Walter | pt_BR |
dc.contributor.author | Lopes, Silvia Regina Costa | pt_BR |
dc.date.accessioned | 2018-11-01T02:49:36Z | pt_BR |
dc.date.issued | 2012 | pt_BR |
dc.identifier.issn | 0043-1397 | pt_BR |
dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/10183/184271 | pt_BR |
dc.description.abstract | The paper compares forecasts of mean monthly water levels up to six months ahead at Ladário, on the Upper Paraguay River, Brazil, estimated from two long-range dependence models. In one of them, the marked seasonal cycle was removed and a fractionally differenced model was fitted to the transformed series. In the other, a seasonal fractionally differenced model was fitted to water levels without transformation. Forecasts from both models for periods up to six months ahead were compared with forecasts given by simpler "short-range dependence" Box-Jenkins models, one fitted to the transformed series, the other a seasonal autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model. Estimates of parameters in the four models (two "long-range dependence", two "short-range dependence") were updated at six-monthly intervals over a 20 year period, and forecasts were compared using root mean square errors (rmse) between water-level forecasts and observed levels. As judged by rmse, performances of the two long-range dependence models, and of the ARMA (1,1) short-range dependence model, were very similar; all three out-performed the seasonal short-range dependence ARMA model. There was evidence that all models performed better during recession periods, than on the hydrograph rising limb. | en |
dc.format.mimetype | application/pdf | pt_BR |
dc.language.iso | eng | pt_BR |
dc.relation.ispartof | Water resources research. Washington, DC. Vol. 48, n. W05502 (2012), 13 p. | pt_BR |
dc.rights | Open Access | en |
dc.subject | Modelos hidrológicos | pt_BR |
dc.subject | Modelo arma | pt_BR |
dc.subject | Previsão hidroclimática | pt_BR |
dc.subject | Séries temporais | pt_BR |
dc.subject | Paraguai, Rio | pt_BR |
dc.title | Comparison of forecasts of mean monthly water level in the Paraguay River, Brazil, from two fractionally differenced models | pt_BR |
dc.type | Artigo de periódico | pt_BR |
dc.identifier.nrb | 000851298 | pt_BR |
dc.type.origin | Estrangeiro | pt_BR |
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